By george friedman the iranians have broken the international atomic energy agency seals on some of their nuclear facilities. Jun 21, 2017 the wisdom and need for such a strategy effectively inserting the united states in syrias civil war, after years of trying to stay out of it, and risking direct confrontation with iran and. The new war against iran in syria is psychological. Iran s insistence on maintaining a major military presence in syria could well put it on the brink of war on another frontwith israel on syrian soil and beyond.
Iransyria relations improved dramatically after the iranian revolution of 1979. There seems to be some us involvement, along with several gulf states to get th. Iran is training thousands of militiamen in syria and deploying drones and precision weapons. The air line of communication between iran and syria is thus a key vulnerability for iranian strategy in syria.
Part of foreign involvement in the syrian civil war and the iransaudi arabia proxy conflict. Especially the presence of shiite militias orchestrated by tehran was in the center of western, arab and of course israeli critique. Russia and other world powers must move to limit irans growing military strength in syria because it poses a regional threat, the directorgeneral of israels intelligence ministry told reuters. Iran would not be able to maintain its current level of support to assad. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian. Syria, iran, russia and china plan joint war games. Syrias alliance with iran this is the fifth in a series of usipeace briefings on syria published by the institutes center for conflict analysis and prevention.
Developing a containment strategy in syria center for strategic. Its mission is to be an analytical, researchled global forum for informing, influencing and. Iranian ground forces as well as russian air capabilities syria study group, 2019. Irans syria plan hints at shiite red crescent goal. Syria, iran, and hizballah 28 syria since the 1963 coup detat, the ba. The trump administration could combine these steps.
Unstated, and perhaps unstateable, is the expectation among u. Iran s strategy in syria aims to keep president bashar alassad in power as long as possible while setting conditions to ensure tehrans ability to use syrian territory and assets to pursue its regional interests should assad fall. Oct, 2017 in a heavily advertised friday afternoon speech on iran policy, president donald trump claimed to be unveiling a new strategy to address the full range of irans destructive actions. Iran has conducted an extensive, expensive, and integrated effort to achieve these objectives. In recent years, the strategic alliance between iran and hezbollah has grown to the point where the lebanese militant groups fealty to tehran is. The national security strategy notes that we crushed islamic state of iraq and syria. Produced in support of the strategic multilayer assessment sma office. The pyd kurdish democratic union party has imposed its dominance in northern syria, but its longrun prospects like those of the areas it controls depend on the partys ability to adopt a more balanced and inclusive strategy. There seems to be some us involvement, along with several gulf states to. Download pdf file of developing a containment strategy in syria. The urgency in both capitals reflects the rapidly changing landscape in syria and elsewhere in the region.
Government forces capture more than 705 settlements and over 17,000 sq km of territory. Syrias strategic alliance with egypt ended around the same time due to egypts treaty with israel. But successful negotiations with enemies result not from the talks themselves but from the diplomatic strategy that accompanies them. Iran center for strategic and international studies. Oct 27, 2014 unstated, and perhaps unstateable, is the expectation among u. Iranian objectives will diverge in syria as time wears on. Syrian pm, visiting ally iran, says government winning civil war. The perceived shift from chaos to an evolving order in syria presents a challenge to israels policy of limited intervention. Iranian involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia.
Our specialists combine incountry experience, language skills, and. May 16, 2012 the washington post reports that more lethal arms are getting to the forces fighting syrian dictator bashar al assad. The hezbollah connection in syria and iran council on. Ahmadinejad could not carry out his strategy of flanking the wahhabis and still continue the minuet with europe. It is being waged on the propaganda and the political front, in the banks and boardrooms, and according to recent wikileaks, on the covert military front as well. Syria is usually called irans closest ally, with ideological conflict between the arab nationalism ideology of syrias secular ruling baath party and the islamic republic of irans panislamist policy notwithstanding. The 1996 israeli document, which included prominent u.
Iran and syria have had a strategic alliance ever since the iraniraq war, when syria sided with nonarab iran against its fellow baath. So he ended khatamis game with a bang, with a massive diatribe on the holocaust and by arguing that if there had been one, the europeans bore the blame. Trumps new strategy on iran is neither new nor a strategy. Iran sees the survival of the syrian government as being crucial to its regional interests. In a heavily advertised friday afternoon speech on iran policy, president donald trump claimed to be unveiling a new strategy to address the full range of irans destructive actions. Postrevolution iran represented an opportunity for syrian president hafez alassad to find a new counterweight to israel and iraq, syrias regional foes. Iranian strategy in syria institute for the study of war. Syrias alliance with iran united states institute of peace. Iran has decided that the best way to preserve syria s continued prominence in the axis of resistance is to make sure that the syrian state achieves full control over its territory, especially. Feb 19, 2018 iran is training thousands of militiamen in syria and deploying drones and precision weapons. Sep 30, 2015 the urgency in both capitals reflects the rapidly changing landscape in syria and elsewhere in the region.
In recent years iran s activities in syria have been severely criticised. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian conflict. Against a backdrop of growing instability in the middle east, and despite continued pressure from the west, syrias alliance with iran appears to be holding strong and perhaps even deepening. They did this very deliberately and publicly to make certain that everyone knew that tehran was proceeding with its nuclear program. It is the culmination of nine months of deliberation with congress and our allies on how to best protect american security. Iran would not be able to maintain its current level of support to assad if this air route were interdicted through a nofly zone or rebel capture of syrian airfields. In syria and the middle east in general the most effective disinformation techniques are the barely plausible but unverifiable lie. A synopsis of the event is included below, and video is available at right. Major government strategic gains in latakia, palmyra, raqqa,damascus, and aleppo fronts.
Bans will be given without the customary warnings for users that break the community guidelines. Jan, 2017 the population swaps are central to a plan to make demographic changes to parts of syria, realigning the country into zones of influence that backers of bashar alassad, led by iran, can directly. Issue brief the evolving iranian strategy in syria. As per its national military strategy, and restrained by its limited highend conventional capabilities, tehran is projecting force into syria by training, arming, and advising local and foreign shia militias which act as lightinfantry forces. Assessing options for regime change daniel byman, michael doran, kenneth pollack, and salman shaikh. The region now compromises an important vector of russias eurasian strategy, and successful policy applications here can set the stage for russias future return as a global actor. Traditional regional studies literature focuses on korean issues within the asia paci. Iran and syria is thus a key vulnerability for iranian strategy in syria.
The syrian civil war and the end of turkeys liberal dream. Aug 29, 2017 an election poster outside damascus, syria, in 2014 of president bashar alassad, right, with hassan nasrallah, the hezbollah leader. The washington post reports that more lethal arms are getting to the forces fighting syrian dictator bashar al assad. The march to war iran and the strategic encirclement of. Syria is key to irans strategic efforts in the middle east. Foreign policy at brookings arms control and nonproliferation series v the global nuclear nonproliferation regime eventual. Opposition gains in syria have interdicted many ground resupply routes between baghdad and damascus, and the relative paucity of iranian portvisits in syria suggests that irans sealanes to syria are more symbolic than practical. This capability, which very few states in the world have, will fundamentally alter the strategic calculus and balance of power within the middle east. Mar 21, 2017 russia and other world powers must move to limit irans growing military strength in syria because it poses a regional threat, the directorgeneral of israels intelligence ministry told reuters. Jan 18, 2006 the europeans were simply americans who were weaker. Syria, iran, russia and china plan joint war games, iranian. The united states has strongly criticized both syria and iran for contributing to the regions volatility and, in particular, for playing a destabilizing role in each of three regional conflicts. Iranian portvisits in syria suggests that irans sealanes to syria are more symbolic than practical. Iran, deeply embedded in syria, expands axis of resistance.
A resident walks his bicycle through damage and debris on a street deir alzor, eastern syria november 29, 20. The implications of the syrian war for new regional orders in. Us voices concerns about irans role in safe zone deal. Pdf iranian strategy in iraq and syria walter posch. An election poster outside damascus, syria, in 2014 of president bashar alassad, right, with hassan nasrallah, the hezbollah leader. Download the backgrounder figure 1 fighters from hts train in idlib province, syria. This event brought to power hafez alassad, the man who took the presidential position in. Nov 30, 20 a resident walks his bicycle through damage and debris on a street deir alzor, eastern syria november 29, 20. This event brought to power hafez alassad, the man who took the presidential position in 1971, and was in power until his. The establishment media is full of speculation about whether the u.
Toward the end of phase 1, these efforts will be merged with economic. Overview syrian peace talks ron ton, wilbur perlot, hans wurzer march 2016 on march 9 a new round of talks is scheduled to start in geneva between representatives of the syrian government and opposition forces. Secretarygeneral ban kimoon, data shows a seventypercent increase. The turkish institution that that conversely found itself thrust into syria was the milli istihbarat teskilat.
Syrian president bashar alassads regime would fall within weeks. Irans growing influence in the evolving order in syria is driving israel to change its mindset and strategies. The documents name is a clean break a new strategy for securing the realm. The new war against iran in syria is psychological the shadow war with iran in syria is politics by other means because the grand strategy is to evict iran from syria. The islamic republic of iran and the syrian arab republic are close strategic allies, and iran has provided significant support for the syrian government in the syrian civil war, including logistical, technical and financial support, as well as training and some combat troops.
Trump, in consultation with his national security team, has approved a new strategy for iran. Topics covered in this section include but are not limited to, completion of irans missile, rocket, and nuclear programs. Understanding irans role in the syrian conflict rusi. Breaking down iran and russias military strategy in syria.
Opposition gains in syria have interdicted many ground resupply routes between baghdad and damascus, and the relative paucity of iranian portvisits in syria suggests that iran s sealanes to syria are more symbolic than practical. Omar haj kadourafpgettyimages hayat tahrir alsham hts or the organization for the liberation of the levant traces its beginnings to the outset of the syrian civil war and has remained a dangerous opposition force throughout the duration of the conflict. Jun 19, 2012 syria, iran, russia and china plan joint war games, iranian news agency says largest exercise in mideast history set to take place within a month. Dprksyriairan nuclear nexus and strategic implications for israel and the rok by christina y. The wisdom and need for such a strategy effectively inserting the united states in syrias civil war, after years of trying to stay out of it, and risking direct confrontation with iran and. As assad was losing ground from 2011 to october 20, iran became heavily involved in maintaining the current regime in power. Irans top military officer signed agreements in syria last month that will keep iranian forces there indefinitely with a pledge to help the bashar assad regime rebuild damaged military bases. Before syria, the agency focused on domestic intelligence and was hardly known in the region. The population swaps are central to a plan to make demographic changes to parts of syria, realigning the country into zones of influence that. Syrian pm, visiting ally iran, says government winning. Naame shaam is a group of iranian, syrian and lebanese activists that focuses on uncovering the role of the iranian regime in syria. It is thus necessary to explore russias mideast policy more indepth, with a specific. These dynamics combine to forecast continued chaos and fragmentation of.